Poland’s economy is marching forward. That is the cover theme of the Warsaw Business Journal of Apr 2021. By the way, I invite everyone to get their copy, and that’s not because I have my piece in it. Still, I believe it is the best English magazine and indispensable source of information for foreign investors or individuals in Poland.
In my article, I started with talking about 2020 as an exceptional year where a lot had happened, and I believe it is the one that will stick in people’s memories for some time to come, if not forever. Though I think that’s almost behind us, and it will be interesting to understand where Poland is headed.
If we are talking figures, the world bank expects the global economy to grow by 4%. However, most economists would be cautious regarding public debts, more lockdowns, and the need for monitory, fiscal, and labor reforms. It is also essential that we understand the risk of a misbalance in the global economy where a strong rebound in the US economy would harm weaker economies, especially when considering the FED has more room to maneuver its monetary policy than other economies.
If we move closer to home, the European economy, COVID, and lockdown hit hard business, aggravating some of its fragile economies like Italy and Spain. The OECD forecasts a weaker growth than expected at 3.8% & 3.9% in 2021 & 2022, respectively. Though high budget deficit, financialized economies, disrupted supply chain, long-term unemployment remains s a significant concern.
Looking at the Polish economy, I could say the economy fared better than its neighboring economies. We are looking at storing household consumption, positive trade balance, favorable exchange rate, and relatively accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. In its latest figures, the Polish Central Bank expects the economy to grow by 3.1% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022.
The unemployment rate remains at a stable level slightly above 3%, where the NBP is expecting the figure to increase to 3.8% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. I’m cautiously optimistic about the Polish economy; however, we need to get out from the lockdown quickly, strengthening consumption “ a lot of money remain trapped in saving accounts.”
Overall, Poland remains a very attractive destination for investment thanks to a competitive workforce, diversified economy, strategic position, a vital role in the nearshoring initiative, and a growing community of start-ups. All of that will continue to attract foreign investments, high-paying jobs and further develop Poland’s economy.
It is an excellent time to invest in Poland.